2020 Mirrorless Camera News/Views | Sans Mirror | Thom Hogan

Which Mirrorless?

Sat, 28 Nov 2020 11:12:46 -0500

We've got several dozen "current" mirrorless cameras on the market, and an almost as large set of previous generation cameras still available. So how do you sort through that and pick rationally?

I'll start with two provocative proclamations:

Skip the previous generation still on the market. The only real reason you buy previous generations is because of price. Frankly, mirrorless is still moving fast enough that buying even one generation behind means that you're not getting the best mirrorless has to offer. Yes, focus is better on the latest generation. Even current generation cameras, such as the Sony A7 Mark III, can feel old now (dpreview just put that camera in last place behind the Canon R6, Panasonic S5, and Nikon Z6 II, and I agree). If you're buying a camera to keep you satisfied for a few years of use, buying behind the state-of-the-art is going to cause you a photographic depression very quickly ;~)
Stick with your brand. Take it from someone who spends significant time with multiple brands: picking up a different product from what you've been using is going to cause you a great deal of extra learning, and you might never quite get totally comfortable. Initially, you'll miss shots as you try to figure out how to get the camera to do what you want it to. But even long term you'll like have a cognitive dissonance or two that causes you grief. Canon mirrorless works like previous Canons. Nikon mirrorless works like previous Nikons. And so on. You'll have enough to learn with a new camera without having to retrain yourself in basics.

Olympus Exits High

Tue, 17 Nov 2020 10:04:44 -0500

In their last product announcement as Olympus, the Imaging team produced the much-awaited 150-400mm f/4.5 lens (with built-in 1.25x teleconverter). This lens clocks in at US$7500, and I suspect that price is surprising a few m4/3 users. Given that it's a 300-800mm equivalent with a reasonably fast aperture (but small image circle), the price seems about right to me.

I'm Confused. So Are You.

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 14:31:14 -0500

The mirrorless camera market is in a tizzy at the moment, despite being the only dedicated camera market that looks like it is sustainable (the pandemic notwithstanding).

Let's take it maker by maker:

Canon — I'm sure you all know by now how I feel about EOS M: it really feels like a dead end due to its mount. Plus its lack of lenses (buzz buzz ;~). One thing that's becoming clear is that the M is coming out of the PowerShot group, not the DSLR and video groups, which are clearly headed to the RF mount. But is this what you really want, Canon? Cameras aimed at less sophisticated and more all-automatic users that don't have an upgrade path to the top ones? I don't think so.

Meanwhile, RF has taken some puzzling turns of its own. The experimental UI of the R and the lets-lowball-the-market RP didn't seem consistent with the DSLR group's needs long term. Fortunately, the R5 and R6 look like two "right" models, but...really, taking out a battery or leaving out the card "solves" the R5 overheating problem? It's now appearing that FeverGate is really just a software nanny that's been given too much power. By whom? And why?

And then there's EOS Cinema, which has yet to complete a transfer to the new mount. I've noticed that more and more of the Hollywood/Netflix continuum is solidly using Arri and Sony these days. It doesn't feel like the Canon engineers have quite hit the nail on the head yet. Sony's solidly one mount, Canon's weakly three mounts at the moment.

So, here's my question to Canon marketing: which Canon do you want me to buy and endorse? It feels like there's six competing entities at the moment, all of which share different personalities. (That would be PowerShot, EOS M, EOS EF, EOS R/RP, EOS R5/R6, and EOS Cinema.) I don't think the camera market is big enough for that much differentiation, and here at the pro level I want a simpler gear closet than you're proposing I have.
Fujifilm — For their market share, Fujifilm sure has a lot of model choices. And they often work out to be confusing ones, as the X-T3 versus X-H1 choice was, or now the X-T30 versus X-S10 choice is. Moreover, Fujifilm isn't completely consistent with their adherence to dials and how they work. It's as if Fujifilm engineers keep trying new ideas thinking that those will be the things that catapult them into a larger market share.

Four APS-C models and two medium format models are enough, and they should be consistent in UI by this point. We're eight years in on X's, and we're still seeing that the UI and ergonomics is unsettled (and this isn't Fujifilm's first rodeo). Other than the top X-Pro and X-T models, it's impossible to predict what "refinements" Fujifilm might be working on. I have a real difficult time recommending the X-S or X-E models because of that, and even some of the X-T models seem not fully predictable. It's one thing to refine product, it's another to change your design mind.

I'm also a bit unclear about lenses now. We're getting repeats and refinements of the lenses we had, without filling the lineup. In particular, I wonder just how much Fujifilm is committed to telephoto. Fujifilm wants the X-T4 to be the D500 replacement for many, but the lack of suitable telephoto lenses means that won't happen.
Nikon — Nikon has two basic problems at the moment, and none of them are the actual Z mirrorless cameras or lenses they've delivered so far!

Problem number one is that Nikon has been losing market share while trying to transition from DSLR to mirrorless. That simply means that they're not being quick enough in their transition, and they haven't convinced their installed base that it's worth it. One is a pace of engineering issue, the other a marketing one. I get it. Nikon is totally reliant on two businesses, semiconductor equipment and cameras, and both are cyclical. This time the down cycles coincided, and that increases the risks involved with trying to innovate and move forward. The real choice facing Nikon recently has been this: get smaller fast or gamble the company. They chose smaller. Still, I see issues with their execution that could have been avoided. Those need fixing, stat.

The second problem is that they can't deliver the products that they've announced to the customers. D6? Out of stock. 70-200mm f/2.8 S? Late and out of stock day one. 24-200mm? Out of stock unless you buy a kit. 180-400mm f/4? Out of stock. 500mm f/5.6 PF? Out of stock until just recently. D780? Some versions out of stock (too much incorrect kitting, Nikon). WR-R10? Out of stock and the replacement isn't available yet. 85mm f/1.8 G or S? Drifting in and out of stock. Not delivering products that are desirable to key customers is not the way you halt market share slide. As I was writing this I got one of those periodic emails from a long-time Nikon user ("When should I just call it a day and move to Sony?"). You should never have that issue with your customers.

Thing is, all the product engineering so far with the Z system has been pretty darned good. Nikon came out of the gate with their first generation right hot on the tails of Sony's third generation. The lens parade just continues to produce great choices and fill in gaps (though note problem #2). I suppose the DX side of the Z system looks questionable, but at least a Z50 user can grow into a Z5 or better without finding they need an entirely new lens set.

Nikon just needs to move faster, deliver more, and find a way to leapfrog Sony for the still photographer (realistically, that's not going to happen for the video customer). Still, I'm confused by the problems I'm seeing from Nikon. It's not like those aren't predictable, thus why hasn't there been a fix?
Olympus — Punt! But first, put on several razzle dazzle plays and see if that works. I hate to say "I told you so" on the train wreck that has been Olympus m4/3. The E-M1X won over what, a hundred users? (Okay, it might have been 10 thousand, but still, that's not a sustainable product at the price point, particularly when you were sending out emails to your user base offering them a refurbished model for less than a new E-M1 Mark III.)

Just before writing this, I was reading one fan proclaiming that Olympus has 40% of the Japanese ILC market so far this year. What were the cameras driving this? The E-PL9 and the E-M10 Mark II, neither of which are current cameras. Olympus' problem has been similar to the one that Canon has been dealing with: they can sell volume, but only at the bottom, and often only discounted previous generation product. And in Olympus' case, that really only happens in the home market. In a contracting market, Olympus was left with operations designed for far bigger sales, and "best selling" products that sell with little or no GPM to speak of. Certainly not a GPM that would sustain the group.

Olympus also has some of the Nikon problem. By that I mean that the engineers hand over nice products to the marketing group, who then fails to be able to define them to customers. On the Olympus site right now, there's a rotation of five products: E-M1 Mark III "No limits. Break free"; E-M1X "Absolute Confidence"; E-M5 Mark III "All you need to break free" (wait, wasn't I supposed to break free with the E-M1?); and no top level message at all about the E-M10 Mark IV and E-PL10. If you didn't know anything about the Olympus models, what would that messaging tell you?

Olympus' overall message probably should have been "small, light, no tripod necessary." But then exactly how are the five models lined up from there? I'll give you a hint: E-M1 Mark III: unbeatable in inclement weather. Yet when I look at Olympus' summary page, I get no strong sense of how the models really differ and why I'd want one over another. That gets muddied further because three generations of some models are presented simultaneously, and I'm not really told how they really differ.

I really like the E-M1 and E-M10 models, and I can see how some might find the E-M5 a reasonable compromise. But that knowledge came from use, not marketing message. This brings up a point I haven't seen discussed much: now that Olympus has divested the camera group to JIP, will they improve the marketing? Because if they can't, it's a slow fade into obscurity, I think.
Panasonic — Like Canon, I think Panasonic has a mount problem. I can even buy a Panasonic video camera with a Canon EF mount ;~). Actions speak louder than words, and the only true action we've seen from Panasonic lately is a stream of L-mount product centered around full frame mirrorless cameras. That's sending a warning signal to both their m4/3 and the pro video customers, as, at the moment, neither benefit from all that action.

I think Panasonic will eventually bring their pro video over to the L-mount. The single mount strategy really is the correct strategy for a market that's smaller than it was before and not likely to grow much, if at all, anytime soon. Resource spread is a giant friction for companies. Heck, note that Apple is trying to get all of their product onto Apple designed silicon now: concentration in one engineering realm allows faster progress than diluted focus.

All of which makes m4/3 users nervous and confused, even though we got two new Panasonic m4/3 cameras this year. With Olympus bailing, Panasonic concentrating on establishing L-mount, what's that leave us? Not much, though the recent BGH1 is interesting, the G100 was not.

So Panasonic has a similar problem to Nikon and Olympus: what is the marketing message? It needs clarity, stat.
Sony — Sony had the benefit of total commitment early to the E-mount. People seem to now have forgotten the A-mount abandonment, and even Sony's pro video users now find themselves on the E-mount, too. Early to act, aggressive to act, consistent in action: all good things. And it's why Sony has done well and remains the one to beat in mirrorless at the moment.

But it's getting trickier for Sony, and I'm not sure they've yet to prove they can get the UI/ergonomics right. This year we only got three video centric still cameras from Sony (ZV-1, A7S Mark III, A7C). And Sony didn't dot all the i's and cross all the t's on two of those cameras, by any means. The whole "vlogging" camera category still needs a clear winner, though Sony doesn't yet have a lot of competition there.

Meanwhile, many of the mainstays of Sony's line (A7 Mark III, A6xxx) feel like they've prematurely aged against the competition. The rumors about the next A7 update would have Sony pushing it far closer to where the A9 currently sits (stacked sensor, high bandwidth sensor). This is the problem that Canon and Nikon ended up having in the DSLR world: that top model that fetched high prices started getting undercut by their more affordable models because pushing the high-end faster and further is much more difficult than bringing the middle of the lineup upwards.

But one thing Sony has to be scratching their heads about is this: the six-year-old A6000 is still their best-selling mirrorless model, and some of their other best-selling models are also previous generation cameras. That won't be true in 2021. The A6000 body only is already discontinued, and once the stock of body+16-50mm lenses is exhausted, the best-selling A6000 will become history. Sony really wants you to (currently) pay US$200 more for the A6100. That nets you 4K video and a microphone jack, basically. The fact that the A6000 is the best seller tells you that people don't want to pay US$200 for 4K video and mic jack.

Sony's basic premise has been "we're engineering ahead of the rest." Lots of technical gains that are overhyped by Sony's effective marketing department. The reality is that the race is much tighter than it was now that Canon and Nikon are all in, and it's starting to "out" the things that Sony didn't get right in their 10-year head start and still haven't fixed.

Naughty or Nice?

Sun, 08 Nov 2020 14:43:33 -0500

I've dyed my beard white, let my tummy expand even more outward, cleared my throat with a ho-ho-ho, and am now sitting down and reviewing my Naughty or Nice list for 2020. Let's see how the camera company kids did;

Canon — Nice for rich, Naughty for the poor. The R5, R6, and 1DX Mark III, coupled with expansion of the RF lens lineup are the good news. But only an M50 Mark II that didn't really change and a Rebel T8i I'm not sure I can distinguish from the couple of hundred other Rebels that have been made are the bad news.
Fujifilm — Very Nice for the cameras—though there still are too many of them—but with a bit of a lapse towards Naughty starting in lenses. Instead of building out the lenses that aren't in the lineup (cough, telepho-ho-ho-to), Fujifilm seems to be double-dipping now, making more variants of the same thing and mildly updating older lenses.
Nikon — Nice. Despite all the naysayers, 2020 brought one of their best-ever DSLRs, three "new" full frame mirrorless choices, seven new lenses, and even a Coolpix P950. All these items were squarely in the hobbyist/pro sector Nikon claims to be concentrating on. That they managed to do all this while managing serious contraction of size is to their credit. Another couple of years of this kind of "Nice" and things should settle down well for them, I think.
Olympus — Lump of Coal Naughty. They've been naughty for awhile, basically recycling the same bits and pieces up and down their lineup while insisting that things will be better in the future. This year, though, they've decided to just hand off their mess to someone else and be rid of the problems they didn't solve. This, of course, caused a loss of faith in many diehard m4/3 fans, which is going to make the new owners' problems worse.
Panasonic — Nice. Like Nikon, a reasonably solid year, just on a much smaller scale (3 new cameras, 2 new lenses). Panasonic seems to be the quiet child that plays nice. We probably ought to encourage that.
Sigma — If you think of them as a lens maker, then a mild Nice. But like Tamron, they appear to have backed off from volume of new entries. If you think of Sigma as a camera maker, then Naughty. Nothing new, and their lineup is much like aging Baby Boomers who've passed their prime.
Sony — Mostly Nice. Much like Panasonic, a solid 3 new cameras and 3 new lenses. Some will think they've been naughty, as this is down from 7 new cameras and 6 new lenses the year before. Note to Sony: do what Nikon just did: just fix the problems in your current line that customers object to; it's a winning move, even if a Mark V doesn't seem all that different than a Mark III or IV. Not everything has to be a technology announcement.
Tamron — Inconclusive. After a really Nice 2019, things seemed to slow way down at Tamron, with only one new lens launched (compared to 7 in 2019). Moreover, it's now unclear whether Tamron is just going to be a Sony Supporter in return for Sony's investments, or whether the rapidly growing volume in RF and Z is enough to get their attention. Gee, could their need to reduce factory employment be related to basically trying to live off of one lens mount?

The Out of Stock Holiday?

Mon, 09 Nov 2020 09:29:27 -0500

Despite the camera makers having started increasing their mirrorless production early this fall, I still fear that they haven't quite matched the consumer reality.

I keep hearing from tons of people who have put off their buying decisions during most of 2020, but are now willing to finally commit to something new this holiday. They want to end the year in a positive spirit with a new toy, not continue to hide in their holes. This is particularly true of those who already had disposable income, remained employed, and have shown in the past that they're willing to spend on gear.

How To Design a Perfect Mirrorless Camera

Wed, 04 Nov 2020 09:59:04 -0500

Oh that we could mix and match features and parts.

Imagine for a second that you were appointed Full Frame Camera Czar, and that all the current full frame product groups now reported to you. Your job is to take the best of all the existing products and build the ultimate full frame mirrorless camera. What would that look like?

Thom's Mirrorless Holiday Winners

Sun, 25 Oct 2020 14:39:59 -0400

It's the early kick-off of camera buying season, and a lot of you are looking for some help in figuring out which camera to buy. Assuming it's a mirrorless camera, sansmirror is here to help. Simply find the category you're really interested in and then read who the winner you should really be considering is.

Entry Full Frame

A Strange Week in Mirrorless

Sat, 17 Oct 2020 09:52:34 -0400

Last week was a bit strange. Four new cameras. Four not-so-new cameras. Only these were the same four in both cases.

Canon introduced the EOS M50 Mark II, which seemed the weakest launch of the week. Despite reading the press release carefully, it still had me scratching my head as to what really changed. One thing that the rest of the photographic press seemed to overlook is Canon's claim that the M50 Mark I was the best-selling mirrorless camera in the US so far in 2020. Yes, Sony fans, that claim is correct and comes from the same NPD retail data you like to quote from time to time.

Nikon Announces the Next Chapter (Z6 II and Z7 II)

Tue, 13 Oct 2020 08:48:09 -0400

You're going to have to look very closely to see the differences between the first and the second generation of Z's that Nikon announced today. For example, on the Z6 II, I see four external changes after staring at the body for until I went cross-eyed: (1) Z6 II badge ;~); (2) larger card slot door; (3) ever-so-slightly deeper design (ala the Z5); and a slight change to the prism size/shape/slope.

Where Are We, Really?

Sat, 03 Oct 2020 14:35:53 -0400

You might have noticed that I recently split the "current" camera database from the "older" camera database on this site. While some will beef with where I've made the cutoff, the cameras in the latter category either are no longer being made, or are only being made until parts supply is exhausted; a new model has replaced them.